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 Post subject: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:13 am 
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Apparently, Mélenchon has overtake Fillon and is now in third place in the race.

All it would take is a dose of reality from Hamon's supporters (plus some more anti-Rothschild banker rhetoric) and a Mélenchon vs Le Pen 2nd round could become a reality.

Which way would that one go?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:42 pm 
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Don't believe all you read - all the polls are showing a different result. Some show Fillon-Le Pen, some Le Pen-Macron, some Macron-Fillon....some....

All seem to agree there's a 3% margin of error, with most showing a 5% gap from top to bottom. Your guess is as good as mine. I've been tempted all week to have a bet on the result.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:57 pm 
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The key question will be where do Fillon's votes go.

Last time that there was a Le Pen it was easy. The choice was right or far right. Against their real will a right candidate was better for the left than a far right - anyone but Le pen became the watch word.

This time Fillon has set himself quite far to the right. Will his supporters take the short step to Marine, or a violent lurch to the left? I think they will split. The more centrist the opposition candidate, the more of Fillon's supporters will go that way. So Le Pen vs Macron will see more go leftwards than Le Pen vs Melenchon. This leaves the intriguing thought that Le Pen vs Melenchon might well see Le Pen win, whereas Le Pen vs Macron could see her lose.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:32 am 
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thelastoneout wrote:
The key question will be where do Fillon's votes go.

I think they'll go to Fillon. More and more people see that all Macron is offering is another 5 years of Hollande-ism behind the marketing buzz. It's a pity Hollande and Co stabbed Hamon in the back so comprehensively, but he'll be back I'm sure. The other two are peddling London fog in a jar.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:17 pm 
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I think you missed the point MAD. The question was based on Melenchon vs Le Pen - Thus the assumption (which I do not necessarily accept) is that Fillon and Macron are both out in the first round.

So in that scenario, where would Fillon's voters go in the second round?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:30 pm 
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In the 2nd round of the last pres. election the various leftist groups banded together to oppose Sarkozy. I wonder if this will happen this time? ie v. lePen.
Will the rightwing groups use the same tactics to oppose her?


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:42 pm 
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thelastoneout wrote:
The question was based on Melenchon vs Le Pen - Thus the assumption (which I do not necessarily accept) is that Fillon and Macron are both out in the first round.

So in that scenario, where would Fillon's voters go in the second round?

I'd be very surprised if we had an extreme left v extreme right in the final round, though the way people seem to vote today, anything could happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:29 pm 
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thelastoneout wrote:
I think you missed the point MAD. The question was based on Melenchon vs Le Pen - Thus the assumption (which I do not necessarily accept) is that Fillon and Macron are both out in the first round.

So in that scenario, where would Fillon's voters go in the second round?

It's very hypothetical! I don't know what the answer is, honestly. Abstain, maybe?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:42 pm 
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I accept it is hypothetical but if more than 50% Fillon voters were to go to Le Pen in a possible round 2, I could see Marine getting in by a thin whisker. Yes some would abstain, some might vote Melenchon (Macron would be a more certain second alternative), but I fear that given where Fillon has positioned himself, many could just nudge to the right.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:10 am 
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Opinion polls, if you can believe them, are saying 60:40 to Melanchon in a round two fight off with Le Pen.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:17 am 
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There are 15 or so polls out there, all showing different winners according to their target audience :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:45 am 
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Am I right in thinking that both Melonchon and Le Pen are in favour of Frexit?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:50 am 
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Le Pen wants France to leave Europe and the euro while Mélenchon wants to back out of all European treaties which he feels constrain French liberty.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:54 am 
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Blaze wrote:
Le Pen wants France to leave Europe and the euro while Mélenchon wants to back out of all European treaties which he feels constrain French liberty.

and then to get out of Europe altogether if he doesn't get his way...
Dupont-Aignon and Cheminade are also in favour of Frexit.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:25 am 
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I think I'm going to stick my head under the pillow and cry. it's all too much what with Trump and all...

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:16 pm 
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Marine Le Pen now says she would suspend all legal immigration to France.
What exactly does she mean? Has anyone found her exact words anywhere?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:17 pm 
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From Europe1 :
Quote:
Marine Le Pen veut instaurer un "moratoire immédiat sur toute l'immigration légale" si elle est élue. La candidate Front national s'y est engagée lundi soir, lors d'un grand meeting à Paris au cours duquel elle a déroulé sa conception de la "priorité nationale" qu'elle souhaite instaurer. "Je réformerai le code de la nationalité pour qu'on ne puisse plus devenir français quasiment par hasard", a-t-elle notamment affirmé, avant d'ajouter : "être français, ça s'hérite ou ça se mérite".

http://www.europe1.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-veut-un-moratoire-immediate-sur-toute-limmigration-legale-3297608


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:00 pm 
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So if she doesn't like us Brits who have applied to be French will she refund us the 55€ we have each paid out in timbres fiscaux? :-? :|

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:03 pm 
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liz wrote:
So if she doesn't like us Brits who have applied to be French will she refund us the 55€ we have each paid out in timbres fiscaux? :-? :|



On your bike.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:42 am 
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I don't have a bike, will she give me one?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:00 am 
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I never learned to ride a bike, so even if she gave me one all I could do is hang my suitcases from the handbars and push off.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:00 am 
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MAD87 wrote:
I never learned to ride a bike, so even if she gave me one all I could do is hang my suitcases from the handbars and push off.


OK so try a tricycle it's more stable,no I'm not horseing about.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:14 pm 
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I've said this on a couple of other forums, but what the hell.

Will Le Pen be mightier than the sword? =:)

If Le Pen or far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon get in then it could well be the start of the end for that load of freeriders in Brussels. They will have to find new fiddles to keep themselves in clover?

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:54 am 
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She said yesterday that she'd close France's borders the day after taking power. I rather think the EU and business would have something to say about that.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:27 am 
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Yes, in the same way that Trump closed the borders to those from certain Arab countries!


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:31 am 
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And built his wall :)) :))

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:31 am 
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The tragic attack in Paris last night would not have been stopped by closing any border. Like in so many previous attacks, the terrorist was home-grown. He was also given 20 years in 2005 for shooting police officers (twice), but released after 5 years. So much for Taubira's policies....

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:54 am 
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Too late to edit my last post. It wasn't Taubira's fault (she didn't come onto the scene until 2012), but someone else's.
Still a major problem with the justice system.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:10 pm 
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MAD87 wrote:
Too late to edit my last post. It wasn't Taubira's fault (she didn't come onto the scene until 2012), but someone else's.
Still a major problem with the justice system.



Yes Mad, time and time again the justice system here go against the police and gendarmerie, any wonder that they are on colere.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:04 pm 
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Le Pen's leafletteers were out in force at a local market today, as were Macron's. I wished one lot 'good luck' and told the others what I think of them. In French, of course and very politely too, in the best possible taste as old Kenny Everett would have said :| :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:54 pm 
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MAD87 wrote:
The tragic attack in Paris last night would not have been stopped by closing any border. Like in so many previous attacks, the terrorist was home-grown. He was also given 20 years in 2005 for shooting police officers (twice), but released after 5 years. So much for Taubira's policies....

Just to be clear, my comment was meant tongue in cheek. One does wonder, though, whether such events are designed to increase the chances of a Le Pen presidency. I hope that the electors are bright enough to see this, but being angry is not the best way to come to a rational choice.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:09 pm 
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They are intended to cause mayhem, and Le Pen in power is exactly that. Are the voters bright enough? We will soon find out.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:29 pm 
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If Le Pen is not supported in Parliament, she may have difficulty in putting any of her nonsensical ideas into practice.


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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:06 am 
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Unless, like UK MP's, they're a bunch of wet blankets who change their minds more often than the weather changes.

As for the mentality of "the people", we can only hope that the thin majority are not of the same ilk as Trump supporters, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Mélenchon vs Le Pen
PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:43 am 
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I've seen people encouraging others to vote, even if it's just to deface or leave the paper blank. I don't see that that achieves anything more than abstaining and abstaining achieves and changes nothing for those who do it.

Whilst it may be incredible to choose who to vote for, surely there are candidates that people definitely don't want to win - so why don't they at least vote for a lesser evil ?

Today should be a day free of electoral campaigning .....


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