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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:05 pm 
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All the polls I've seen seem to be indicating that MLP will not succeed in the second round - are there some new ones saying she will?


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:14 pm 
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Personally, I'd rather have politicians who do what's legal than someone like MLP, who's been manipulating the system for years, just like Daddy.

François H planned to 'résponsibiliser' the ruling class, cut ministers' salaries, then appointed zillions of them and awarded himself a 10k/month hairdresser at our expense.

Much of what is spent on our behalf is unnecessary, just waste, but who'll stop it? None of the current candidates.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:44 pm 
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On a lighter note, I love the French media's pronunciation of Penelope as Penny Lope. Has been smiling every time!

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:11 pm 
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liz wrote:
On a lighter note, I love the French media's pronunciation of Penelope as Penny Lope. Has been smiling every time!


Perhaps she should stick acutes on the 2nd and 3rd 'e's. :|

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:22 pm 
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Thibault wrote:
All the polls I've seen seem to be indicating that MLP will not succeed in the second round - are there some new ones saying she will?


Would those be the same pollsters that predicted a remain vote for the referendum and Clinton for the president of the USA?

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:53 pm 
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liz wrote:
On a lighter note, I love the French media's pronunciation of Penelope as Penny Lope. Has been smiling every time!



Interesting one. It's originally Greek and is probably more popular in France that the UK. My kids/grandkids just naturally go for the French pronunciation as they have a Godchild/cousin with the same name, and she is lovely.

Penny, however is a taker and Fillon is history.

Given the current hatred of the establishment and you can see why with such antics, I wouldn't be surprised if MLP wins. Most of the French people I know seem to think the same, and are gutted.


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:56 am 
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Why should they be gutted? They have a choice. It's up to the other candidates now to take up the slack, tone down their respective lunacies, and in the case of Macron stop faffing around and present a plan.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:33 pm 
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It seems a decision is due this week:

http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Affaire-F ... nte-846569

The plot thickens.

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:28 pm 
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thelastoneout wrote:
Thibault wrote:
All the polls I've seen seem to be indicating that MLP will not succeed in the second round - are there some new ones saying she will?


Would those be the same pollsters that predicted a remain vote for the referendum and Clinton for the president of the USA?


I think the difference here is that the polls are miles apart - the US and Brexit votes were always quite tight. There's absolutely no chance that Le Pen will win the presidency this year. The "anyone but Le Pen" vote is far too strong.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:30 pm 
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I hope you are right Andrew.

I however sense a significant group who could/would vote for her, but would never admit it to anyone. I fear this is much closer than many imagine and if she does really well on the first round.............

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:51 pm 
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Just look back at her father v chirac, in 2002, close first round then the French woke up and Chirac got the president.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:57 pm 
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Papibryn wrote:
Just look back at her father v chirac, in 2002, close first round then the French woke up and Chirac got the president.


But then it was right vs extreme right - so the left were happier to go with Chirac.

This time it looks like it will be centre-left vs extreme right - which way will Fillon's supporters go?

(and, as I have said before, what if NF copy UKIP and go for the working vote?)

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:04 pm 
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niemeyjt wrote:
Papibryn wrote:
Just look back at her father v chirac, in 2002, close first round then the French woke up and Chirac got the president.


But then it was right vs extreme right - so the left were happier to go with Chirac.

This time it looks like it will be centre-left vs extreme right - which way will Fillon's supporters go?

(and, as I have said before, what if NF copy UKIP and go for the working vote?)

J

Same as life is to short to drink cheap wine, I just don't want to think about it, we just enjoy life what's left of it, it's our kids and grandkids we worry for.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:14 pm 
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Brazen it out, seem to be the current way. Now the dindu generation? Where when found out stealing lying etc. The first response is:

Dindu nuffin!!

Kids find out that it works now the adults follow suite.


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:27 pm 
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I wouldn't be surprised if Fillon's case is classé sans suite. Some say that despite what he may have done in the past, as far as the elections, he lay be a better choice than some of the others on offer. So if charges are not taken to any higher court, he could continue to drum up support.

Le Pen seems to be gaining more support, which could mean more votes for Fillon. Whilst many say predict that the second round could be Macron v. Le Pen, Macron has still to come up with a viable plan.


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:08 pm 
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And if it is Macron vs Le Pen how will that impact on those who would have voted elsewhere.

Last time there was a Le Pen in the running, the left voted for Chirac on the basis that he was more left wing than Le Pen.
But this time? Will Fillon supporters vote anyone but Le Pen, or anyone but the left (albeit liberal left).

The question becomes even more pointed if it is Le Pen vs Hamon.

I still hope Andrew was right, but fear he might be wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:56 am 
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thelastoneout wrote:

I still hope Andrew was right, but fear he might be wrong.

+1

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:24 am 
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Either way, talks of a Frexit are coming to the fore.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:42 am 
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Bayleaf wrote:
Either way, talks of a Frexit are coming to the fore.


Frexit, at present, I think would be a step too far for most French. MLP, as I understand it, will offer a referendum - so I guess the timing were she to be elected would depend on public opinion and the likelihood of a win (which may also be linked to how Brexit is perceived to have gone).

AS for the Euro - I think France needs to have a genuine debate and leading candidates are discussing it - Macron is quoted as saying without reforms the Euro will be dead in 10 years. As I understand it MLP wants to introduce a New Franc at 1:1. I am not sure whether this will remain hard pegged (so mostly symbolic) or floating so it can be devalued to regain competitiveness.

Whilst this thread is on Fillon and France, we must not forget that there is also an election in Germany and currently the left under former head of European Parliament Martin Schulz may form the next government in conjunction with the far left and greens. This will see the end of Wolfgang Schäuble as German Finance Minister and maybe a weakening of the German dogma over the Euro, austerity and bail-outs (particularly if current predictions that the Dutch elections will see the end of Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem also come true).

Macron and Schulz may take the entire direction of Europe to the left - and I predict a direct European Tax being introduced (the left love taxes) - maybe on businesses (that will sort out the issues around Apple, Amazon etc) maybe personal - or maybe both?

All this assumes we won't be seeing much more of Fillon, of course.

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:13 pm 
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The plot thickens . . .

Socialist Hamon says he’s talked with far-left Melenchon to put together a single candidate.

With 16% and 13% respectively neither will make round 2. With 29% they will - to face MLP on 26%. Macron and Fillon on 20% would both be out! (on current figures).

And apropos my earlier comments about the EU tilting left under Macron - it will veer left with this scenario. But how many Macron & Fillon supporters from round 1 will go to MLP?

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:49 pm 
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Interesting question, niemeyjt.
I suspect quite a few Républicains would defect to MLP, simply to defeat the loony left. Having said that, I'd rather suffer through another round of Socialist economic U-turns than the blatant nastism of the FN.

Economically, Le Pen's lot are even worse than a Hamon-Mélenchon alliance, but politically MLP could isolate France for decades.

And Macron is currently an empty shell....Talk about rocks and hard places - if I had the vote, I'd be hard put to choose any candidate.

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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:27 pm 
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I thought I would tack this on here instead of start a new thread on the end of Macron

Centrist Bayrou's choice could sway tight French presidential race:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN1610PU

Will he stand and split the center vote? Maybe he will be Fillon's saviour - unless the left make an alliance.

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:10 pm 
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Interesting Polls:

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/presiden ... 07390.html

Image
Image

So, unless the left unify, it looks like a Fillon vs MLP 2nd round is back on! And if it is, the results look much closer now 56% : 44%.

J


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:12 pm 
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How did Macron's call for British academics, scientists etc to come to France for work after Brexit go down in the French media?


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 Post subject: Re: Could this be the end of Fillon ?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:50 am 
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Macron's invitation was reported here with little comment so far as I can see. It seems to have raised a few hackles across the Channel though :lol:

As for Bayrou, as Hervé Morin so succinctly put it, the old weathervane has been peddling the same tired ideas since 2002. Somebody clearly managed to get the message through this time.

MLP was interviewed on TF1 last night and dismissed the contra-opinions of her programme with a 'huh, experts!' comment. Now where have we heard that before...? I also notice that most of her assertions re Brexit were false, but her electorate won't want to hear that.

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